Yale School of Management Stock Market Confidence Indexes™

Crash Confidence Index

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Confidence that there will be no stock market crash in the succeeding six months generally declined (though with a lot of ups and downs) over the years since 1989 until the stock market bottomed out in late 2002. Just after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, Crash Confidence actually rose a little. But Crash Confidence reached its lowest point at 20.79% for institutional investors and 28.95% for individual investors as of November 2002. By April 2006, Crash Confidence was up to 57.95% for institutional investors and 48.61% for individual investors. ( Questions and Methodology)

Data Tables

Crash Index - Institutional Date Index Value Standard Error Oct 1989 36.99 4.00 Apr 1990 25.76 3.81 Oct 1990 18.25 3.30 Apr 1991 31.58 4.03 Oct 1991 37.18 3.87 Apr 1992 28.16 3.41 Oct 1992 27.87 4.06 Apr 1993 23.62 3.77 Oct 1993 28.23 4.04 Apr 1994 33.61 4.33 Oct 1994 31.76 5.05 Apr 1995 33.33 5.05 Oct 1995 41.49 5.08 Apr 1996 22.22 4.62 Oct 1996 41.77 5.55 Apr 1997 30.97 4.35 Oct 1997 36.99 5.65 Apr 1998 25.00 3.83 Oct 1998 22.12 4.07 Apr 1999 26.96 4.14 Oct 1999 26.15 5.45 Apr 2000 26.23 5.63 Oct 2000 30.00 8.37 Apr 2001 31.58 6.16 Jul 2001 27.27 4.75 Aug 2001 26.37 4.62 Sep 2001 26.60 4.56 Oct 2001 22.47 4.42 Nov 2001 24.27 4.22 Dec 2001 25.00 3.95 Jan 2002 24.77 4.13 Feb 2002 29.84 4.11 Mar 2002 31.34 4.01 Apr 2002 32.82 4.10 May 2002 33.33 4.20 Jun 2002 36.11 4.62 Jul 2002 40.43 5.06 Aug 2002 30.53 4.72 Sep 2002 25.00 4.25 Oct 2002 23.08 4.13 Nov 2002 20.79 4.04 Dec 2002 23.64 4.05 Jan 2003 24.79 3.99 Feb 2003 31.53 4.41 Mar 2003 42.86 4.18 Apr 2003 45.19 4.28 May 2003 48.51 4.32 Jun 2003 49.61 4.40 Jul 2003 50.36 4.24 Aug 2003 51.63 4.04 Sep 2003 48.82 4.44 Oct 2003 47.45 4.27 Nov 2003 47.54 4.52 Dec 2003 43.09 4.47 Jan 2004 42.50 4.51 Feb 2004 35.85 4.66 Mar 2004 35.40 4.50 Apr 2004 38.05 4.57 May 2004 39.37 4.34 Jun 2004 43.08 4.34 Jul 2004 41.35 4.27 Aug 2004 43.31 4.40 Sep 2004 41.75 4.86 Oct 2004 43.88 5.01 Nov 2004 47.71 4.78 Dec 2004 46.96 4.65 Jan 2005 52.00 5.00 Feb 2005 50.00 4.81 Mar 2005 50.40 4.47 Apr 2005 43.48 4.22 May 2005 40.65 4.43 Jun 2005 43.28 4.28 Jul 2005 45.21 4.12 Aug 2005 44.65 3.94 Sep 2005 46.26 4.11 Oct 2005 48.57 4.22 Nov 2005 50.00 4.20 Dec 2005 50.76 4.35 Jan 2006 47.97 4.50 Feb 2006 53.27 4.82 Mar 2006 53.64 4.75 Apr 2006 57.95 5.26 May 2006 57.81 6.17 Jun 2006 49.30 5.93 Jul 2006 48.35 5.24 Aug 2006 40.74 4.73 Sep 2006 40.00 4.67 Oct 2006 43.22 4.56 Nov 2006 45.39 4.19 Dec 2006 49.62 4.34 Jan 2007 49.57 4.62 Feb 2007 57.29 5.05 Mar 2007 54.84 5.16 Apr 2007 53.19 5.15 May 2007 45.74 5.14 Jun 2007 38.24 4.17 Jul 2007 37.89 3.52 Aug 2007 34.80 3.01 Sep 2007 34.41 2.84 Oct 2007 35.96 2.59 Nov 2007 36.21 2.58 Dec 2007 35.00 2.51 Jan 2008 34.36 2.40 Feb 2008 36.71 2.52 Mar 2008 36.24 2.51 Apr 2008 34.64 2.61 May 2008 36.75 2.57 Jun 2008 38.36 2.78

Crash Index - Individual Date Index Value Standard Error Oct 1989 41.59 4.64 Oct 1996 33.08 4.13 Apr 1999 34.81 3.79 Oct 1999 33.70 4.93 Apr 2000 30.70 4.32 Oct 2000 38.89 6.63 Apr 2001 32.93 5.19 Jul 2001 31.40 5.00 Aug 2001 32.26 4.85 Sep 2001 30.19 4.46 Oct 2001 35.05 4.84 Nov 2001 33.33 4.42 Dec 2001 36.57 4.16 Jan 2002 40.23 3.72 Feb 2002 38.76 3.37 Mar 2002 40.57 3.14 Apr 2002 39.37 3.07 May 2002 40.71 3.27 Jun 2002 39.59 3.48 Jul 2002 35.59 3.60 Aug 2002 34.36 3.72 Sep 2002 31.33 3.79 Oct 2002 29.56 3.62 Nov 2002 28.95 3.68 Dec 2002 32.14 3.60 Jan 2003 35.79 3.48 Feb 2003 36.51 3.50 Mar 2003 35.75 3.33 Apr 2003 35.96 3.60 May 2003 41.90 3.40 Jun 2003 40.69 3.44 Jul 2003 41.01 3.69 Aug 2003 44.38 3.72 Sep 2003 48.15 3.93 Oct 2003 48.88 3.75 Nov 2003 43.40 3.93 Dec 2003 41.18 3.98 Jan 2004 39.16 3.79 Feb 2004 39.52 3.78 Mar 2004 38.07 3.66 Apr 2004 40.46 3.73 May 2004 41.18 3.77 Jun 2004 40.21 3.57 Jul 2004 42.08 3.65 Aug 2004 40.56 3.66 Sep 2004 41.73 4.18 Oct 2004 37.14 4.08 Nov 2004 36.42 3.92 Dec 2004 39.33 3.99 Jan 2005 38.93 3.99 Feb 2005 38.62 4.04 Mar 2005 39.20 3.68 Apr 2005 40.33 3.65 May 2005 43.93 3.77 Jun 2005 44.83 3.77 Jul 2005 44.07 3.73 Aug 2005 45.76 3.74 Sep 2005 44.81 4.01 Oct 2005 45.75 4.03 Nov 2005 46.21 4.14 Dec 2005 47.59 4.15 Jan 2006 47.52 4.21 Feb 2006 44.52 4.11 Mar 2006 46.99 3.87 Apr 2006 48.61 4.17 May 2006 46.34 4.50 Jun 2006 43.36 4.66 Jul 2006 40.74 4.23 Aug 2006 41.79 4.26 Sep 2006 39.23 4.28 Oct 2006 38.73 4.09 Nov 2006 42.07 3.85 Dec 2006 39.11 3.65 Jan 2007 39.74 3.98 Feb 2007 36.91 3.95 Mar 2007 35.21 4.01 Apr 2007 33.73 3.67 May 2007 29.94 3.54 Jun 2007 29.65 3.48 Jul 2007 30.08 2.99 Aug 2007 29.73 2.84 Sep 2007 29.85 2.85 Oct 2007 29.04 2.48 Nov 2007 28.25 2.37 Dec 2007 30.93 2.35 Jan 2008 29.18 2.21 Feb 2008 30.16 2.19 Mar 2008 30.08 2.09 Apr 2008 29.27 2.32 May 2008 29.92 2.32 Jun 2008 27.02 2.34