Yale School of Management Stock Market Confidence Indexes™

Valuation Confidence Index

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Confidence in the valuation of the market trended downward for both individual and institutional investors between 1989 and 1999. The extreme low in Valuation Confidence was reached in 1999 (29.03% for institutional investors and 31.17% for individual investors), our last survey before the peak in the stock market in 2000, and this may have been a significant source of downward instability in the market that helped bring on the market crash after 2000. This downtrend in confidence was reversed after the peak in the stock market in early 2000, and confidence was soon back to levels typical of the 1990s. After the 2000 crash in the stock market, and until around the October 2002 post-peak low in the market, Valuation Confidence rose rapidly. Valuation confidence reached 79.85% as of October 2003 for institutional investors and 78.92% as of January 2003 for individual investors. Valuation confidence did not retract as the market soared after the bottom of the market in October 2002 until the Dow passed its 2000 peak again in 2006. As of April 2006, Valuation Confidence set a new all-time record high of 88.76% for institutional investors. ( Questions and Methodology)

Data Tables

Valuation Index - Institutional Date Index Value Standard Error Oct 1989 80.58 3.36 Apr 1990 60.61 4.25 Oct 1990 59.40 4.26 Apr 1991 64.57 4.24 Oct 1991 51.61 4.01 Apr 1992 51.46 3.82 Oct 1992 55.08 4.58 Apr 1993 57.14 4.41 Oct 1993 55.00 4.54 Apr 1994 57.98 4.52 Oct 1994 65.52 5.10 Apr 1995 64.71 5.18 Oct 1995 70.65 4.75 Apr 1996 60.49 5.43 Oct 1996 58.62 5.28 Apr 1997 49.55 4.75 Oct 1997 35.62 5.60 Apr 1998 45.97 4.48 Oct 1998 50.96 4.90 Apr 1999 33.04 4.44 Oct 1999 29.03 5.76 Apr 2000 31.03 6.07 Oct 2000 53.57 9.42 Apr 2001 58.93 6.57 Jul 2001 58.62 5.28 Aug 2001 58.89 5.19 Sep 2001 58.51 5.08 Oct 2001 60.00 5.16 Nov 2001 54.72 4.83 Dec 2001 50.82 4.53 Jan 2002 46.43 4.71 Feb 2002 48.00 4.47 Mar 2002 50.00 4.32 Apr 2002 44.27 4.34 May 2002 48.80 4.47 Jun 2002 55.56 4.78 Jul 2002 57.45 5.10 Aug 2002 57.73 5.02 Sep 2002 57.55 4.80 Oct 2002 60.95 4.76 Nov 2002 65.00 4.77 Dec 2002 63.30 4.62 Jan 2003 65.79 4.44 Feb 2003 68.81 4.44 Mar 2003 71.53 3.86 Apr 2003 72.73 3.88 May 2003 75.94 3.71 Jun 2003 74.60 3.88 Jul 2003 76.64 3.61 Aug 2003 76.00 3.49 Sep 2003 76.80 3.78 Oct 2003 79.85 3.47 Nov 2003 78.99 3.73 Dec 2003 78.69 3.71 Jan 2004 76.03 3.88 Feb 2004 74.77 4.20 Mar 2004 74.11 4.14 Apr 2004 70.80 4.28 May 2004 67.19 4.15 Jun 2004 70.23 4.00 Jul 2004 68.18 4.05 Aug 2004 66.67 4.20 Sep 2004 66.35 4.63 Oct 2004 66.00 4.74 Nov 2004 69.09 4.41 Dec 2004 70.69 4.23 Jan 2005 74.26 4.35 Feb 2005 75.45 4.10 Mar 2005 74.80 3.85 Apr 2005 75.54 3.65 May 2005 75.81 3.85 Jun 2005 72.39 3.86 Jul 2005 73.97 3.63 Aug 2005 74.68 3.46 Sep 2005 73.97 3.63 Oct 2005 72.79 3.82 Nov 2005 76.09 3.63 Dec 2005 79.07 3.58 Jan 2006 79.17 3.71 Feb 2006 81.90 3.76 Mar 2006 85.19 3.42 Apr 2006 88.76 3.35 May 2006 87.69 4.07 Jun 2006 87.67 3.85 Jul 2006 84.78 3.74 Aug 2006 79.63 3.88 Sep 2006 75.45 4.10 Oct 2006 77.12 3.87 Nov 2006 77.14 3.55 Dec 2006 75.76 3.73 Jan 2007 76.92 3.90 Feb 2007 80.21 4.07 Mar 2007 82.42 3.99 Apr 2007 79.35 4.22 May 2007 75.00 4.51 Jun 2007 71.97 3.91 Jul 2007 72.68 3.29 Aug 2007 73.97 2.82 Sep 2007 73.26 2.68 Oct 2007 74.25 2.39 Nov 2007 73.82 2.38 Dec 2007 75.71 2.28 Jan 2008 76.17 2.17 Feb 2008 75.00 2.28 Mar 2008 76.26 2.25 Apr 2008 76.31 2.36 May 2008 77.84 2.24 Jun 2008 77.04 2.31 Jul 2008 76.60 2.52 Aug 2008 78.86 2.37 Sep 2008 77.74 2.51 Oct 2008 78.41 2.32 Nov 2008 78.60 2.43

Valuation Index - Individual Date Index Value Standard Error Oct 1989 73.27 4.40 Oct 1996 51.97 4.43 Apr 1999 31.17 3.73 Oct 1999 34.12 5.14 Apr 2000 28.04 4.34 Oct 2000 55.77 6.89 Apr 2001 59.26 5.46 Jul 2001 56.47 5.38 Aug 2001 57.61 5.15 Sep 2001 57.14 4.83 Oct 2001 60.00 5.03 Nov 2001 60.00 4.78 Dec 2001 61.48 4.41 Jan 2002 62.26 3.84 Feb 2002 58.12 3.57 Mar 2002 58.45 3.33 Apr 2002 57.33 3.30 May 2002 57.21 3.49 Jun 2002 56.57 3.75 Jul 2002 57.69 3.96 Aug 2002 65.04 3.99 Sep 2002 70.99 3.96 Oct 2002 73.05 3.74 Nov 2002 76.30 3.66 Dec 2002 78.23 3.40 Jan 2003 78.92 3.17 Feb 2003 75.93 3.36 Mar 2003 74.86 3.21 Apr 2003 76.28 3.41 May 2003 72.04 3.29 Jun 2003 69.83 3.43 Jul 2003 66.24 3.77 Aug 2003 68.99 3.68 Sep 2003 66.43 3.95 Oct 2003 65.19 3.79 Nov 2003 67.83 3.91 Dec 2003 69.29 3.90 Jan 2004 72.37 3.63 Feb 2004 66.45 3.79 Mar 2004 65.03 3.74 Apr 2004 64.20 3.77 May 2004 60.76 3.88 Jun 2004 59.77 3.72 Jul 2004 59.04 3.82 Aug 2004 64.85 3.72 Sep 2004 65.87 4.22 Oct 2004 65.35 4.22 Nov 2004 63.04 4.11 Dec 2004 64.03 4.07 Jan 2005 61.43 4.11 Feb 2005 60.45 4.22 Mar 2005 61.96 3.80 Apr 2005 61.68 3.76 May 2005 65.63 3.75 Jun 2005 66.88 3.79 Jul 2005 65.63 3.75 Aug 2005 66.25 3.74 Sep 2005 64.79 4.01 Oct 2005 64.03 4.07 Nov 2005 66.15 4.15 Dec 2005 64.93 4.12 Jan 2006 67.46 4.17 Feb 2006 65.38 4.17 Mar 2006 68.31 3.90 Apr 2006 70.97 4.08 May 2006 68.57 4.53 Jun 2006 69.00 4.62 Jul 2006 67.21 4.25 Aug 2006 69.49 4.24 Sep 2006 69.23 4.27 Oct 2006 71.54 3.96 Nov 2006 73.33 3.61 Dec 2006 73.78 3.43 Jan 2007 78.10 3.53 Feb 2007 76.64 3.61 Mar 2007 73.64 3.88 Apr 2007 69.13 3.78 May 2007 67.79 3.83 Jun 2007 66.23 3.85 Jul 2007 64.79 3.27 Aug 2007 63.98 3.12 Sep 2007 65.68 3.09 Oct 2007 63.43 2.74 Nov 2007 61.38 2.66 Dec 2007 61.33 2.56 Jan 2008 59.58 2.51 Feb 2008 61.46 2.44 Mar 2008 62.30 2.32 Apr 2008 63.53 2.61 May 2008 64.62 2.59 Jun 2008 66.67 2.53 Jul 2008 69.97 2.63 Aug 2008 67.91 2.85 Sep 2008 66.36 3.23 Oct 2008 68.54 2.84 Nov 2008 69.37 3.09