Yale School of Management Stock Market Confidence Indexes™

Buy-On-Dips Confidence Index

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Confidence that the stock market will rise the day after a sharp fall showed an overall uptrend over the years from 1989 until shortly after it became clear that the 2000 peak in the market was a major turning point. Buy-On-Dips Confidence peaked at 71.93% as of July 2001 for institutional investors and at 76.65% as of March 2002 for individual investors. Between 2002 and 2006 Buy-On-Dips Confidence was often falling, but did not establish a clear trend. ( Questions and Methodology)

Data Tables

Buy-On-Dips Index - Institutional Date Index Value Standard Error Oct 1989 46.67 4.87 Apr 1990 54.02 5.34 Oct 1990 32.50 5.24 Apr 1991 37.50 5.41 Oct 1991 59.78 5.11 Apr 1992 49.24 4.35 Oct 1992 51.35 5.81 Apr 1993 46.15 5.64 Oct 1993 50.56 5.30 Apr 1994 45.88 5.40 Oct 1994 33.33 6.24 Apr 1995 56.90 6.50 Oct 1995 57.89 6.54 Apr 1996 50.94 6.87 Oct 1996 60.71 6.53 Apr 1997 51.90 5.62 Oct 1997 54.72 6.84 Apr 1998 66.67 5.05 Oct 1998 62.69 5.91 Apr 1999 59.04 5.40 Oct 1999 42.86 7.07 Apr 2000 62.16 7.97 Oct 2000 47.62 10.90 Apr 2001 69.70 8.00 Jul 2001 71.93 5.95 Aug 2001 71.19 5.90 Sep 2001 71.67 5.82 Oct 2001 70.18 6.06 Nov 2001 67.61 5.55 Dec 2001 65.82 5.34 Jan 2002 60.61 6.01 Feb 2002 62.67 5.59 Mar 2002 63.10 5.27 Apr 2002 64.56 5.38 May 2002 65.75 5.55 Jun 2002 61.54 6.03 Jul 2002 61.40 6.45 Aug 2002 58.18 6.65 Sep 2002 58.62 6.47 Oct 2002 55.93 6.46 Nov 2002 57.89 6.54 Dec 2002 60.66 6.25 Jan 2003 64.79 5.67 Feb 2003 62.50 5.71 Mar 2003 65.17 5.05 Apr 2003 65.52 5.10 May 2003 70.45 4.86 Jun 2003 66.67 5.05 Jul 2003 64.52 4.96 Aug 2003 64.08 4.73 Sep 2003 59.78 5.11 Oct 2003 59.60 4.93 Nov 2003 54.35 5.19 Dec 2003 56.82 5.28 Jan 2004 59.30 5.30 Feb 2004 64.00 5.54 Mar 2004 65.38 5.39 Apr 2004 62.03 5.46 May 2004 61.63 5.24 Jun 2004 60.22 5.08 Jul 2004 55.56 5.24 Aug 2004 55.29 5.39 Sep 2004 52.86 5.97 Oct 2004 53.85 6.18 Nov 2004 52.70 5.80 Dec 2004 53.25 5.69 Jan 2005 50.72 6.02 Feb 2005 50.67 5.77 Mar 2005 52.27 5.32 Apr 2005 57.28 4.87 May 2005 61.70 5.01 Jun 2005 62.50 4.75 Jul 2005 64.91 4.47 Aug 2005 65.87 4.22 Sep 2005 65.25 4.38 Oct 2005 66.06 4.54 Nov 2005 64.86 4.53 Dec 2005 66.99 4.63 Jan 2006 66.67 4.81 Feb 2006 67.86 5.10 Mar 2006 69.05 5.04 Apr 2006 68.12 5.61 May 2006 68.00 6.60 Jun 2006 71.70 6.19 Jul 2006 70.00 5.48 Aug 2006 66.67 5.14 Sep 2006 65.12 5.14 Oct 2006 60.22 5.08 Nov 2006 58.88 4.76 Dec 2006 56.86 4.90 Jan 2007 56.82 5.28 Feb 2007 53.52 5.92 Mar 2007 50.00 6.06 Apr 2007 55.88 6.02 May 2007 48.68 5.73 Jun 2007 53.51 4.67 Jul 2007 56.02 3.85 Aug 2007 59.62 3.36 Sep 2007 60.85 3.18 Oct 2007 61.32 2.87 Nov 2007 64.34 2.83 Dec 2007 63.09 2.80 Jan 2008 64.52 2.72 Feb 2008 63.61 2.81 Mar 2008 65.44 2.75 Apr 2008 66.54 2.89 May 2008 64.29 2.86 Jun 2008 64.46 3.08

Buy-On-Dips Index - Individual Date Index Value Standard Error Oct 1989 41.76 5.17 Oct 1996 53.04 4.65 Apr 1999 65.49 3.99 Oct 1999 53.62 6.00 Apr 2000 60.61 4.91 Oct 2000 56.52 7.31 Apr 2001 63.93 6.15 Jul 2001 60.00 6.08 Aug 2001 62.86 5.78 Sep 2001 62.20 5.35 Oct 2001 60.76 5.49 Nov 2001 67.71 4.77 Dec 2001 73.68 4.12 Jan 2002 76.22 3.56 Feb 2002 75.71 3.22 Mar 2002 76.65 3.01 Apr 2002 75.60 2.97 May 2002 72.58 3.27 Jun 2002 68.94 3.65 Jul 2002 65.54 3.91 Aug 2002 60.29 4.20 Sep 2002 59.40 4.26 Oct 2002 58.39 4.21 Nov 2002 61.36 4.24 Dec 2002 63.01 4.00 Jan 2003 67.88 3.64 Feb 2003 68.18 3.75 Mar 2003 62.05 3.77 Apr 2003 62.41 4.08 May 2003 66.28 3.60 Jun 2003 66.67 3.64 Jul 2003 64.63 3.94 Aug 2003 67.10 3.77 Sep 2003 73.24 3.72 Oct 2003 73.08 3.55 Nov 2003 67.91 4.03 Dec 2003 69.29 4.09 Jan 2004 67.88 3.99 Feb 2004 63.77 4.09 Mar 2004 65.10 3.90 Apr 2004 64.19 3.94 May 2004 66.22 3.89 Jun 2004 66.06 3.69 Jul 2004 64.20 3.77 Aug 2004 67.74 3.75 Sep 2004 65.29 4.33 Oct 2004 66.94 4.28 Nov 2004 63.57 4.24 Dec 2004 62.70 4.31 Jan 2005 64.46 4.35 Feb 2005 64.17 4.38 Mar 2005 67.57 3.85 Apr 2005 66.23 3.81 May 2005 66.67 3.85 Jun 2005 65.36 3.85 Jul 2005 65.61 3.79 Aug 2005 64.15 3.80 Sep 2005 63.77 4.09 Oct 2005 61.36 4.24 Nov 2005 65.32 4.27 Dec 2005 65.08 4.25 Jan 2006 68.55 4.17 Feb 2006 70.40 4.08 Mar 2006 66.67 3.97 Apr 2006 69.60 4.11 May 2006 67.62 4.57 Jun 2006 69.79 4.69 Jul 2006 58.97 4.55 Aug 2006 56.90 4.60 Sep 2006 53.57 4.71 Oct 2006 52.00 4.47 Nov 2006 52.74 4.13 Dec 2006 52.90 4.01 Jan 2007 56.25 4.38 Feb 2007 56.92 4.34 Mar 2007 59.35 4.43 Apr 2007 59.03 4.10 May 2007 58.99 4.17 Jun 2007 59.59 4.06 Jul 2007 59.90 3.45 Aug 2007 61.33 3.25 Sep 2007 61.33 3.25 Oct 2007 61.27 2.89 Nov 2007 62.30 2.74 Dec 2007 60.77 2.65 Jan 2008 61.64 2.55 Feb 2008 59.41 2.55 Mar 2008 59.65 2.44 Apr 2008 60.86 2.70 May 2008 61.82 2.67 Jun 2008 62.33 2.80