Yale School of Management Stock Market Confidence Indexes™

One-Year Confidence Index

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Confidence that the stock market will go up in the succeeding year rose fairly steadily over the years from 1989 to 2004, both for institutional and for individual investors. At the peak of One-Year Confidence, as of December 2003, 92.52% of institutional investors expected the market to go up over the succeeding year, and as of January 2004 95.62% of individual investors thought the same. In contrast, One-Year Confidence generally declined from 2004, but was still around 80% for both institutional and individual investors in 2005 and 2006. Beyond these general trends, there have been in past years some pronounced short-run confidence swings up and down in One-Year Confidence. But One-Year Confidence did not change much right after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. ( Questions and Methodology)

Data Tables

One-Year Index - Institutional Date Index Value Standard Error Oct 1989 64.00 4.29 Apr 1990 47.17 4.85 Oct 1990 56.25 4.69 Apr 1991 75.47 4.18 Oct 1991 81.40 3.43 Apr 1992 75.68 3.53 Oct 1992 69.61 4.55 Apr 1993 56.90 4.60 Oct 1993 57.69 4.84 Apr 1994 65.05 4.70 Oct 1994 67.16 5.74 Apr 1995 67.12 5.50 Oct 1995 73.08 5.02 Apr 1996 65.52 6.24 Oct 1996 69.64 6.14 Apr 1997 50.57 5.36 Oct 1997 83.93 4.91 Apr 1998 62.62 4.68 Oct 1998 77.01 4.51 Apr 1999 53.76 5.17 Oct 1999 65.31 6.80 Apr 2000 56.82 7.47 Oct 2000 74.07 8.43 Apr 2001 87.50 4.77 Jul 2001 77.22 4.72 Aug 2001 78.05 4.57 Sep 2001 77.65 4.52 Oct 2001 79.52 4.43 Nov 2001 73.20 4.50 Dec 2001 74.55 4.15 Jan 2002 78.95 4.18 Feb 2002 79.82 3.84 Mar 2002 81.51 3.56 Apr 2002 79.82 3.76 May 2002 83.02 3.65 Jun 2002 84.78 3.74 Jul 2002 84.81 4.04 Aug 2002 81.58 4.45 Sep 2002 82.28 4.30 Oct 2002 81.01 4.41 Nov 2002 80.77 4.46 Dec 2002 80.00 4.34 Jan 2003 82.61 3.95 Feb 2003 86.05 3.74 Mar 2003 84.21 3.42 Apr 2003 85.59 3.33 May 2003 88.29 3.05 Jun 2003 86.92 3.26 Jul 2003 87.50 3.02 Aug 2003 88.06 2.80 Sep 2003 89.19 2.95 Oct 2003 90.83 2.63 Nov 2003 91.74 2.64 Dec 2003 92.52 2.54 Jan 2004 90.10 2.97 Feb 2004 87.91 3.42 Mar 2004 88.04 3.38 Apr 2004 81.11 4.13 May 2004 77.45 4.14 Jun 2004 77.57 4.03 Jul 2004 74.34 4.11 Aug 2004 72.90 4.30 Sep 2004 71.11 4.78 Oct 2004 72.94 4.82 Nov 2004 72.09 4.84 Dec 2004 75.56 4.53 Jan 2005 82.19 4.48 Feb 2005 81.48 4.32 Mar 2005 79.21 4.04 Apr 2005 79.49 3.73 May 2005 81.82 3.68 Jun 2005 76.86 3.83 Jul 2005 75.57 3.75 Aug 2005 75.00 3.66 Sep 2005 74.60 3.88 Oct 2005 72.57 4.20 Nov 2005 74.36 4.04 Dec 2005 77.14 4.10 Jan 2006 78.57 4.14 Feb 2006 83.91 3.94 Mar 2006 87.78 3.45 Apr 2006 92.00 3.13 May 2006 92.59 3.56 Jun 2006 88.89 3.96 Jul 2006 87.18 3.79 Aug 2006 81.11 4.13 Sep 2006 74.73 4.56 Oct 2006 73.74 4.42 Nov 2006 75.21 3.99 Dec 2006 75.00 4.09 Jan 2007 74.51 4.32 Feb 2007 75.58 4.63 Mar 2007 80.00 4.34 Apr 2007 81.18 4.24 May 2007 78.16 4.43 Jun 2007 76.32 3.98 Jul 2007 76.43 3.39 Aug 2007 79.02 2.84 Sep 2007 77.88 2.76 Oct 2007 76.60 2.52 Nov 2007 77.22 2.50 Dec 2007 79.80 2.31 Jan 2008 80.31 2.21 Feb 2008 79.48 2.30 Mar 2008 79.68 2.29 Apr 2008 81.30 2.34 May 2008 82.03 2.24 Jun 2008 80.42 2.35 Jul 2008 79.28 2.56 Aug 2008 80.45 2.43 Sep 2008 80.74 2.52 Oct 2008 81.59 2.33 Nov 2008 80.66 2.26 Dec 2008 81.25 2.37 Jan 2009 81.61 2.40 Feb 2009 81.41 2.50 Mar 2009 81.47 2.55

One-Year Index - Individual Date Index Value Standard Error Oct 1989 62.50 5.16 Oct 1996 66.99 4.63 Apr 1999 75.40 3.84 Oct 1999 76.12 5.21 Apr 2000 76.40 4.50 Oct 2000 76.19 6.57 Apr 2001 89.39 3.79 Jul 2001 90.00 3.59 Aug 2001 90.67 3.36 Sep 2001 88.51 3.42 Oct 2001 92.41 2.98 Nov 2001 90.32 3.07 Dec 2001 89.09 2.97 Jan 2002 88.49 2.71 Feb 2002 89.08 2.36 Mar 2002 90.59 2.05 Apr 2002 88.78 2.20 May 2002 89.33 2.31 Jun 2002 88.39 2.57 Jul 2002 87.50 2.76 Aug 2002 85.04 3.17 Sep 2002 84.48 3.36 Oct 2002 85.50 3.08 Nov 2002 86.47 2.97 Dec 2002 88.51 2.62 Jan 2003 90.48 2.26 Feb 2003 90.85 2.25 Mar 2003 89.62 2.25 Apr 2003 91.03 2.29 May 2003 90.86 2.11 Jun 2003 89.39 2.30 Jul 2003 88.89 2.54 Aug 2003 90.57 2.32 Sep 2003 93.06 2.12 Oct 2003 92.99 2.04 Nov 2003 93.18 2.19 Dec 2003 95.28 1.88 Jan 2004 95.62 1.75 Feb 2004 93.38 2.13 Mar 2004 89.29 2.61 Apr 2004 87.32 2.79 May 2004 85.42 2.94 Jun 2004 84.47 2.85 Jul 2004 83.87 2.95 Aug 2004 84.87 2.91 Sep 2004 85.83 3.18 Oct 2004 87.18 3.09 Nov 2004 87.20 2.99 Dec 2004 88.62 2.86 Jan 2005 87.80 2.95 Feb 2005 87.70 2.97 Mar 2005 87.84 2.69 Apr 2005 86.27 2.78 May 2005 85.52 2.92 Jun 2005 84.25 3.02 Jul 2005 84.25 3.02 Aug 2005 81.82 3.23 Sep 2005 80.49 3.57 Oct 2005 80.51 3.65 Nov 2005 82.73 3.60 Dec 2005 81.98 3.65 Jan 2006 82.73 3.60 Feb 2006 83.93 3.47 Mar 2006 84.13 3.26 Apr 2006 83.93 3.47 May 2006 83.33 3.80 Jun 2006 87.50 3.53 Jul 2006 82.52 3.74 Aug 2006 82.35 3.77 Sep 2006 83.50 3.66 Oct 2006 85.22 3.31 Nov 2006 85.29 3.04 Dec 2006 83.89 3.01 Jan 2007 85.38 3.10 Feb 2007 86.36 2.99 Mar 2007 85.95 3.16 Apr 2007 80.00 3.38 May 2007 80.15 3.42 Jun 2007 79.86 3.40 Jul 2007 79.58 2.92 Aug 2007 78.57 2.83 Sep 2007 77.73 2.86 Oct 2007 79.63 2.45 Nov 2007 78.26 2.39 Dec 2007 76.83 2.38 Jan 2008 72.33 2.40 Feb 2008 72.18 2.35 Mar 2008 72.47 2.24 Apr 2008 70.75 2.55 May 2008 71.92 2.52 Jun 2008 72.12 2.47 Jul 2008 75.18 2.59 Aug 2008 74.49 2.77 Sep 2008 74.24 3.11 Oct 2008 75.82 2.74 Nov 2008 72.98 2.82 Dec 2008 73.18 2.99 Jan 2009 75.45 2.90 Feb 2009 75.36 2.97 Mar 2009 74.68 2.82