Stock Market Confidence Indices - United States CrashIndex

Yale School of Management Stock Market Confidence Indexes™

Crash Confidence Index

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Confidence that there will be no stock market crash in the succeeding six months generally declined (though with a lot of ups and downs) over the years since 1989 until the stock market bottomed out in late 2002. Just after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, Crash Confidence actually rose a little. But Crash Confidence reached its lowest point at 20.79% for institutional investors and 28.95% for individual investors as of November 2002. Crash confidence reached its all-time low, both for individual and institutional investors, in early 2009, just months after the Lehman crisis, reflecting the turmoil in the credit markets and the strong depression fears generated by that event, and is plausibly related to the very low stock market valutions then. The recovery of crash confidence starting in 2009 mirrors the strong recovery in the stock market. (Questions and Methodology)